Almost all auto industry analysts predict Tesla’s present market share dominance to fade as legacy automakers expand their focus to electric vehicles. However, this is a broad generalization that ignores some disagreement and a great deal of uncertainty.
How fast will the Old Guard increase its electric vehicle sales? What elements will have an impact on their overall success? And which brands will be the most formidable foes for the future king? Based on market forecasts by EV Volumes, a new chart from the Visual Capitalist adds additional (hypothetical) details to the basic “Tesla loses market share” narrative.
Many of the heritage manufacturers have been manufacturing Electric Vehicles for years, but they are best defined as R&D projects and assess marketing programs – the word used in the industry is “compliance cars.” It will take years for them to create the supply chains as well as sales-and-service networks needed to make the shift to mass-market electric vehicle sales. Tesla is expected to stay the king of the hill between now and the year 2025, declining from 23 percent to 21 percent market share, according to EV Volumes.
The fundamental necessity of the battery supply chain is something that every EV industry watcher agrees on (and a thing that Tesla recognized early on). Any carmaker interested in mass-producing electric vehicles must first build battery pack production facilities, guarantee a supply of the cells, and ensure that adequate raw materials are accessible. Look at what automakers are doing to bring the parts of this distribution chain together to see which ones are committed to going electric.
Volkswagen is boosting battery system manufacturing at its Braunschweig facility, establishing a pilot battery recycling facility, and establishing a battery engineering lab at its Chattanooga plant, which makes electric vehicles for the North American marketplace. By 2030, the German conglomerate aims to establish six battery facilities across Europe. VW is expected to be the second-largest Electric Vehicle manufacturer by the year 2025, with a 12 percent market share, according to EV Volumes.
Other automakers are fully aware of the importance of batteries. Ford and SK Innovation have established a joint venture to build three massive new battery facilities in Tennessee and Kentucky. GM recently revealed plans to construct a new battery research and development plant in Michigan. GM, along with the Chinese joint-venture counterparts Wuling and SAIC, is expected to be the third-largest EV vendor in 2025, with an 8 percent market share, trailed by Hyundai-Kia with a 6% share, according to EV Volumes. The Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance and BYD, both of which presently possess considerable chunks of the EV market, are expected to lose market share and be surpassed by Stellantis, according to the report. Surprisingly, it predicts that today’s two greatest EV skeptics, BMW and Toyota, will come forward and grab a small but respectable 3% share each by 2025.